Jonathan Powell says this is not surprising given the instability African countries experienced in the years after independence. When a country has one coup, that's often a harbinger of more coups. Coups dropped to around two a year in the two decades up to We are only two years into the current decade and while in only one coup was reported, there's been a noticeably higher than average number this year with six coups or attempted coups recorded so far.
Before the current coup in Sudan, there had been successful coups in Chad, Mali and, Guinea and failed military takeovers in Niger and Sudan. Ndubuisi Christian Ani from the University of KwaZulu-Natal says popular uprisings against long-serving dictators have provided an opportunity for the return of coups in Africa. Sudan has had the most coups and attempted takeovers amounting to 17 - five of them successful.
That doesn't include the current one, which has only just happened. In , long-serving leader Omar al-Bashir was removed from power following months of popular protest. Bashir had himself taken over in a military coup in Nigeria had a reputation for military coups in the years following independence with eight between January and the takeover by Gen Sani Abacha in However, since transfers of power in Africa's most populous nation have been by democratic election.
Burundi's history has been marked by eleven separate coups, mostly driven by the tensions between the Hutu and Tutsi communities. Sierra Leone experienced three coups between and , and another one in Between and , it experienced five further coup attempts.
Worryingly, research shows that many Africans are increasingly ceasing to believe elections can deliver the leaders they want. In other words, less than half believe elections guarantee representativeness and accountability, key ingredients of functional democracies. It is not that Africans no longer want to choose their leaders via elections, it is simply that many now believe their political systems are gamed.
Leaders like the deposed Conde are part of the problem. Mali's President resigns after he was arrested in a military coup. The African Union is rightly condemning Guinea's coup, but its response to such constitutional abuses has been muted. These double standards and perceived elite conspiracies create the perfect environment for young swashbuckling officers like the year-old Doumbouya to step in and promise to save the day.
It is perhaps no coincidence Doumbouya quoted the feisty Rawlings, who was very effective at expressing the anger Ghanaians felt towards their political elites when he led military juntas in the s. Desperate citizens living in political systems they often rightly believe are fixed can easily be seduced by anti-elite, anti-corruption rhetoric coupled with the promise of the new. We should, unfortunately, prepare ourselves for the eventuality of more coups in Africa in the coming years. They are not to be expected in richer countries with strong institutions such as South Africa, Ghana or Botswana but in the poorer more fragile states.
As are Mali, Niger, Chad and now Guinea where coups and coup attempts have recently occurred. Fifteen of the twenty countries topping the Fragile States Index are in Africa, including countries like Cameroon, Central African Republic, Somalia and South Sudan as well as larger nations like Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia which has been experiencing violent internal conflict for close to a year now and Nigeria, Africa's most populous country.
Men are marched out of prison camps. Burkina Faso has a similar story to tell, with a first successful coup in and then further coups in , , and Get your free PDF by completing the following form. You might think this is just a feature of a more authoritarian and less stable past, but the pattern also holds true for the countries that experienced coups this year.
In other words, most coups do not serve to draw a line in the sand and usher in a new period of stability and prosperity. In almost none of the countries mentioned above did coups actually restore the rule of law, strengthen infrastructure, and introduce democracy — at least for any significant period of time.
Instead, coup leaders often proved to be just as self-interested, irresponsible and corrupt as the regimes they had replaced. This is not to say that coups never create opportunities for more effective government. There have been some coup leaders who, like Captain Camara, removed abusive presidents and delivered on their promises.
Even in some of these cases, however, it is clear that coups generated as many problems as they solved. Take the Malian coup of , where a short transition led to multiparty elections and the emergence of a political system that delivered some of the highest levels of civil liberties on the continent. This was a boon for democracy.
However, the fact that the dictatorship was removed by the army and not a popular uprising led by civilian leaders meant that a strong connection between political parties and the citizenry was never formed. Partly as a result, Malian democracy rested on the weakest of foundations, which facilitated its later collapse.
The jury is still out. It is therefore important not to underestimate the long-term damage that coups can generate, even where they are seen to deliver. By undermining the constitution and demonstrating how easily power can be taken through the barrel of a gun, coups weaken existing political institutions and encourage political violence.
They may also set in motion a cycle of counter-coups and conflict that can increase the prospects of civil war, as in the DRC and Nigeria. In turn, this facilitates the militarisation of the state, undermining core democratic processes while enabling former military leaders to continue to dominate the political scene for decades by swapping their fatigues for civilian clothing. This is not only true of coups — it is also the case for unconstitutional strategies more generally.
If your real aim is to strengthen the rule of law, taking power by breaking it is a self-defeating way to start. We believe that Africa is poorly represented, and badly under-estimated. Beyond the vast opportunity manifest in African markets, we highlight people who make a difference; leaders turning the tide, youth driving change, and an indefatigable business community.
That is what we believe will change the continent, and that is what we report on. With hard-hitting investigations, innovative analysis and deep dives into countries and sectors, The Africa Report delivers the insight you need. When Presidents Yahya Jammeh of Gambia, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan were brought down within a few years of each other, Africa appeared to be getting rid of the old men that had dominated the political scene for decades.
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